1 00:00:07,348 --> 00:00:08,708 Good morning, Hoke County! 2 00:00:09,088 --> 00:00:10,588 Good morning, North Carolina! 3 00:00:10,588 --> 00:00:12,178 And good morning, America! 4 00:00:12,778 --> 00:00:14,338 I'm Professor Dr. Lent C. 5 00:00:14,338 --> 00:00:17,338 Carr, the Second, coming to you from the Washington, 6 00:00:17,338 --> 00:00:21,068 D.C. Bureau of the Democracy Independent News Association. 7 00:00:21,538 --> 00:00:23,858 And America, we have a great deal to talk 8 00:00:23,858 --> 00:00:27,468 about this morning! Across this nation, voters are making 9 00:00:27,468 --> 00:00:32,028 their voices heard as the 2026 midterm elections approach. 10 00:00:32,688 --> 00:00:34,828 What are the early voting numbers telling us? 11 00:00:35,228 --> 00:00:38,178 What do they reveal about political participation? 12 00:00:38,568 --> 00:00:41,078 And what might these developments mean for the future 13 00:00:41,078 --> 00:00:45,258 of American democracy? Today, we're examining the evidence, the 14 00:00:45,258 --> 00:00:50,298 constitutional implications, the economic concerns, and the political realities 15 00:00:50,298 --> 00:00:52,738 shaping this extraordinary election season. 16 00:00:53,378 --> 00:00:55,568 This is DINA LIVE 24/7. 17 00:00:55,968 --> 00:00:59,508 Independent in journalism. Uncompromising in truth. 18 00:00:59,898 --> 00:01:01,118 Accountable to the people. 19 00:01:01,898 --> 00:01:05,638 Our first distinction is fundamental: participation is not a 20 00:01:05,638 --> 00:01:09,258 result. An early ballot tells election administrators that a 21 00:01:09,258 --> 00:01:12,638 voter has participated. It does not tell the public 22 00:01:12,638 --> 00:01:15,468 which candidate received that voter's support. 23 00:01:15,468 --> 00:01:17,838 Party registration is a separate record. 24 00:01:18,428 --> 00:01:20,548 Polling is an estimate from a sample. 25 00:01:21,158 --> 00:01:23,898 An election result comes from counting ballots under the 26 00:01:23,898 --> 00:01:27,418 applicable rules. Across the states on our map, the 27 00:01:27,418 --> 00:01:31,888 voting calendars differ. North Carolina's in-person early voting ended 28 00:01:31,888 --> 00:01:36,238 Saturday, October thirty-first. South Carolina's early voting period 29 00:01:36,238 --> 00:01:40,868 also ended Saturday. Texas ended in-person early voting Friday, 30 00:01:40,868 --> 00:01:45,348 October thirtieth. Michigan's constitutionally required early voting 31 00:01:45,348 --> 00:01:48,048 period runs through Sunday, November first. 32 00:01:48,468 --> 00:01:52,548 Iowa allows in-person absentee voting at county auditors' offices 33 00:01:52,548 --> 00:01:54,158 through Monday, November second. 34 00:01:54,588 --> 00:01:57,378 Georgia voters should use the Secretary of State's My 35 00:01:57,378 --> 00:02:00,318 Voter Page for their individual voting information. 36 00:02:00,828 --> 00:02:04,148 Those different calendars are one reason a single national 37 00:02:04,148 --> 00:02:06,468 early-vote number needs careful explanation. 38 00:02:06,998 --> 00:02:11,768 Reports may count applications, ballots sent, ballots returned, ballots 39 00:02:11,768 --> 00:02:14,038 accepted, or people voting in person. 40 00:02:14,368 --> 00:02:16,978 Those categories cannot simply be added together. 41 00:02:17,758 --> 00:02:21,618 We will identify the source, category and update time 42 00:02:21,618 --> 00:02:23,408 whenever we put a number on your screen. 43 00:02:23,938 --> 00:02:26,208 Nor will we declare a record merely because a 44 00:02:26,208 --> 00:02:29,368 number is large. A fair comparison needs a matching 45 00:02:29,368 --> 00:02:32,358 point in the voting calendar and a clear denominator. 46 00:02:32,888 --> 00:02:36,338 A presidential election and a midterm bring different patterns. 47 00:02:36,798 --> 00:02:39,918 More registered voters can produce more ballots without a 48 00:02:39,918 --> 00:02:43,698 higher participation rate. Our job is to explain those 49 00:02:43,698 --> 00:02:46,128 distinctions before drawing conclusions. 50 00:02:46,598 --> 00:02:49,388 DINA LIVE will return after these messages. 51 00:03:29,866 --> 00:03:32,686 Now, let's bring this conversation closer to home. 52 00:03:33,286 --> 00:03:37,136 North Carolina is among the states receiving significant attention 53 00:03:37,136 --> 00:03:38,476 during this election cycle. 54 00:03:38,896 --> 00:03:41,356 We turn to our North Carolina Bureau and our 55 00:03:41,356 --> 00:03:45,246 Political and Government Affairs Correspondent, Madeline Grace Whitmore. 56 00:03:45,486 --> 00:03:46,666 Madeline, good morning! 57 00:03:46,966 --> 00:03:48,376 Good morning, Professor Carr! 58 00:03:48,796 --> 00:03:51,356 And good morning to our viewers throughout North Carolina 59 00:03:51,356 --> 00:03:52,496 and across the nation. 60 00:03:52,966 --> 00:03:57,686 We're examining the official participation figures, election administration, and 61 00:03:57,686 --> 00:04:00,026 the questions families can bring to their candidates. 62 00:04:00,586 --> 00:04:04,426 The State Board's published counts file, updated October thirty-first 63 00:04:04,426 --> 00:04:08,246 at eight forty-one and fifty-one seconds UTC, lists two 64 00:04:08,246 --> 00:04:12,306 million, five hundred twenty-four thousand, six hundred nineteen early 65 00:04:12,306 --> 00:04:17,346 in-person ballots, and eighty-seven thousand, six hundred thirty mail-category 66 00:04:17,346 --> 00:04:21,676 ballots statewide. These are administrative participation counts, not 67 00:04:21,676 --> 00:04:23,286 votes awarded to any party. 68 00:04:23,626 --> 00:04:26,196 They are a snapshot before the final early-voting day 69 00:04:26,196 --> 00:04:27,346 was fully reflected. 70 00:04:27,916 --> 00:04:30,306 And what does that snapshot show closer to home? 71 00:04:30,833 --> 00:04:34,023 The matching county file lists nine thousand, nine hundred 72 00:04:34,023 --> 00:04:37,363 eighty-one early in-person ballots in Hoke County and one 73 00:04:37,363 --> 00:04:41,033 hundred fourteen across its civilian, military and overseas mail 74 00:04:41,033 --> 00:04:41,773 categories. 75 00:04:50,161 --> 00:04:52,141 What should a viewer check before going to the 76 00:04:52,141 --> 00:04:52,761 polls? 77 00:04:53,033 --> 00:04:55,373 Election Day is Tuesday, November third. 78 00:04:55,823 --> 00:04:58,423 North Carolina polls are scheduled to open at six 79 00:04:58,423 --> 00:05:00,733 thirty in the morning and close at seven thirty 80 00:05:00,733 --> 00:05:02,283 in the evening, Eastern time. 81 00:05:02,893 --> 00:05:05,223 A voter in line at the assigned polling place 82 00:05:05,223 --> 00:05:06,903 at seven thirty may vote. 83 00:05:07,343 --> 00:05:09,533 Use the State Board's Voter Search to check your 84 00:05:09,533 --> 00:05:12,993 registration, assigned polling place and sample ballot. 85 00:05:13,433 --> 00:05:17,413 The regular registration deadline and the early-voting same-day registration 86 00:05:17,413 --> 00:05:19,713 period have passed for this Sunday edition. 87 00:05:20,113 --> 00:05:24,943 Contact election officials about any circumstances requiring individual guidance. 88 00:05:25,493 --> 00:05:29,913 Hoke County's official guidance explains acceptable photo identification and 89 00:05:29,913 --> 00:05:33,013 the provisional-ballot process for voters unable to show it. 90 00:05:33,333 --> 00:05:36,403 Check the official instructions rather than assuming that one 91 00:05:36,403 --> 00:05:39,343 missing document automatically means you cannot vote. 92 00:05:39,740 --> 00:05:44,240 Healthcare, education, housing and household affordability all 93 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:48,500 deserve precise questions. What services would a candidate change? 94 00:05:48,940 --> 00:05:50,460 What would those changes cost? 95 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,530 Which public body actually has authority? 96 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,080 We have not conducted a representative Hoke County issues 97 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:00,650 survey, so we will not assign countywide priorities from 98 00:06:00,650 --> 00:06:01,300 anecdotes. 99 00:06:01,909 --> 00:06:05,859 Exactly. We can examine school budgets, public records and 100 00:06:05,859 --> 00:06:09,349 policy proposals without presenting a scripted exchange as an 101 00:06:09,349 --> 00:06:13,089 interview with residents. Our program information links directly to 102 00:06:13,089 --> 00:06:14,969 the State Board and the Hoke County Board of 103 00:06:14,969 --> 00:06:15,669 Elections. 104 00:06:56,099 --> 00:06:58,479 You're watching DINA LIVE 24/7. 105 00:06:58,819 --> 00:07:00,959 Now, back to our Washington, D.C. 106 00:07:00,959 --> 00:07:01,507 Bureau. 107 00:07:01,837 --> 00:07:04,077 Now, The Professor's Analysis. 108 00:07:04,597 --> 00:07:07,437 Here is the distinction between what the evidence measures 109 00:07:07,607 --> 00:07:08,807 and how I interpret it. 110 00:07:09,357 --> 00:07:12,637 The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October fourteenth 111 00:07:12,917 --> 00:07:16,007 that consumer prices rose three point seven percent over 112 00:07:16,007 --> 00:07:17,967 the twelve months ending in September. 113 00:07:18,367 --> 00:07:21,617 The monthly increase was zero point six percent, seasonally 114 00:07:21,617 --> 00:07:24,917 adjusted. Food prices were two point five percent higher 115 00:07:24,917 --> 00:07:27,507 than a year earlier; shelter was up three point 116 00:07:27,507 --> 00:07:31,267 two percent. Gasoline rose nine point one percent during 117 00:07:31,267 --> 00:07:34,067 September on a seasonally adjusted basis. 118 00:07:34,507 --> 00:07:36,627 These are different measures over different periods. 119 00:07:37,257 --> 00:07:40,657 A national average also does not describe every family's 120 00:07:40,657 --> 00:07:43,637 bill. Those statistics measure price changes. 121 00:07:44,127 --> 00:07:48,447 They do not, by themselves, establish which president, party 122 00:07:48,447 --> 00:07:49,747 or law caused them. 123 00:07:50,357 --> 00:07:54,727 Energy markets, housing supply, wages, interest rates and 124 00:07:54,727 --> 00:07:57,187 other forces require separate evidence. 125 00:07:57,697 --> 00:08:00,747 Nor does a slower increase mean prices have returned 126 00:08:00,747 --> 00:08:01,877 to an earlier level. 127 00:08:02,567 --> 00:08:05,957 The legislation commonly called the One Big Beautiful Bill 128 00:08:06,207 --> 00:08:10,167 became Public Law one hundred nineteen, twenty-one on July 129 00:08:10,167 --> 00:08:14,567 fourth, twenty twenty-five. It includes tax provisions and changes 130 00:08:14,567 --> 00:08:16,907 to nutrition assistance and healthcare policy. 131 00:08:17,537 --> 00:08:22,027 The IRS describes deductions for qualified tips, qualified overtime 132 00:08:22,027 --> 00:08:25,597 and eligible seniors, with limits and eligibility rules. 133 00:08:26,077 --> 00:08:29,787 A deduction reduces taxable income; its value depends on 134 00:08:29,787 --> 00:08:34,137 a person's circumstances. There are also substantial healthcare tradeoffs. 135 00:08:34,877 --> 00:08:39,307 The Congressional Research Service's August eighteenth, twenty twenty-five report 136 00:08:39,307 --> 00:08:44,087 describes Medicaid eligibility and financing changes, community-engagement 137 00:08:44,087 --> 00:08:47,627 requirements for certain people, and a rural health program. 138 00:08:48,097 --> 00:08:51,107 It reports the Congressional Budget Office estimate that the 139 00:08:51,107 --> 00:08:55,387 law's health coverage provisions would increase the uninsured population 140 00:08:55,547 --> 00:08:59,427 by ten million in fiscal twenty thirty-four relative to 141 00:08:59,427 --> 00:09:01,727 the January twenty twenty-five baseline. 142 00:09:02,127 --> 00:09:05,377 That is a projection against a baseline, not ten 143 00:09:05,377 --> 00:09:07,247 million observed losses today. 144 00:09:07,667 --> 00:09:12,027 The administration's Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services presents 145 00:09:12,027 --> 00:09:17,387 the reforms as strengthening program integrity, state financing responsibilities 146 00:09:17,617 --> 00:09:18,957 and connections to work. 147 00:09:19,477 --> 00:09:21,617 Those are the government's stated purposes. 148 00:09:22,157 --> 00:09:26,407 Their achievement must be tested against implementation and outcomes. 149 00:09:27,317 --> 00:09:29,947 My progressive interpretation is that a policy should be 150 00:09:29,947 --> 00:09:33,697 judged by who gains, who bears the costs, and 151 00:09:33,697 --> 00:09:37,217 whether people can obtain food, housing and medical care. 152 00:09:37,647 --> 00:09:40,007 Tax relief deserves accurate accounting. 153 00:09:40,257 --> 00:09:43,397 So do coverage losses and administrative barriers. 154 00:09:43,677 --> 00:09:47,227 That is an argument about priorities, clearly labeled as 155 00:09:47,227 --> 00:09:50,827 my analysis. Could dissatisfaction hurt Republicans? 156 00:09:51,277 --> 00:09:54,177 It is a hypothesis to test, not a result 157 00:09:54,177 --> 00:09:57,977 to announce. We have not cleared a current, methodologically 158 00:09:57,977 --> 00:10:00,337 documented polling series for this edition. 159 00:10:00,827 --> 00:10:04,087 We therefore will not put a numerical probability on 160 00:10:04,087 --> 00:10:07,707 congressional control or claim the election has already been 161 00:10:07,707 --> 00:10:12,117 decided. Competing possibilities include voters crediting tax 162 00:10:12,117 --> 00:10:16,517 changes, prioritizing other issues, splitting tickets, or 163 00:10:16,517 --> 00:10:18,427 turning out differently on Election Day. 164 00:10:19,097 --> 00:10:23,177 Black political participation deserves more than a campaign stereotype. 165 00:10:23,727 --> 00:10:26,717 The Voting Rights Act was signed August sixth, nineteen 166 00:10:26,717 --> 00:10:31,607 sixty-five after sustained civil rights organizing and violent resistance 167 00:10:31,607 --> 00:10:35,667 to voting access. That history helps explain why access, 168 00:10:35,967 --> 00:10:40,637 administration and equal treatment remain serious subjects for journalism. 169 00:10:50,998 --> 00:10:55,068 Likewise, the remarks attributed to Senator Ted Cruz remain 170 00:10:55,068 --> 00:10:58,228 outside this edition's verified quotation package. 171 00:10:58,688 --> 00:11:02,038 We have not independently cleared the original recording and 172 00:11:02,038 --> 00:11:05,908 excerpt rights. No quotation or audio will be presented 173 00:11:05,908 --> 00:11:10,678 as authenticated. More broadly, a politician's warning about turnout 174 00:11:10,678 --> 00:11:14,188 is political rhetoric, not a scientific forecast. 175 00:11:54,612 --> 00:11:57,822 We will follow the evidence, correct mistakes, and tell 176 00:11:57,822 --> 00:11:59,272 you what remains unknown. 177 00:11:59,762 --> 00:12:01,862 From our virtual Washington, D.C. 178 00:12:02,282 --> 00:12:03,952 Bureau, I'm Professor Dr. 179 00:12:03,952 --> 00:12:06,122 Lent C. Carr, the Second. 180 00:12:06,592 --> 00:12:09,382 Thank you to Madeline Grace Whitmore, our North Carolina 181 00:12:09,382 --> 00:12:12,402 virtual presenter, and thank you for joining DINA. 182 00:12:12,722 --> 00:12:16,322 Independent in journalism. Uncompromising in truth. 183 00:12:16,662 --> 00:12:18,438 Accountable to the people.