Breaking news · 2026 midterms · Public opinion · Economy · Iran war · Democratic accountability · DINA analysis
WASHINGTON — A large majority of registered voters want substantial change or a complete upheaval in how the United States is governed, while nearly two-thirds disapprove of President Donald Trump's job performance, according to a national AP-NORC survey released Thursday.
The poll found 36% of registered voters approve of Trump's performance and 64% disapprove. About half want “substantial change” in how the country is run, while roughly three in 10 want “complete and total upheaval.” The findings measure public opinion at the time of the survey; they do not predict vote totals or determine which party will control Congress.
What the poll found
- Presidential approval: 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance and 64% disapprove.
- Economic disapproval: 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy, and 79% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living.
- Congressional preference: 47% prefer Democratic control of the House and 46% prefer Democratic control of the Senate; 38% prefer Republican control of each chamber, while 15% are unsure.
- Turnout intensity: About three-quarters of Democratic voters call voting “extremely” important, compared with roughly six in 10 Republican voters.
- Method: AP-NORC surveyed 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, from October 8 through October 12 using NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel.
- Margins of error: ±3.9 percentage points for all adults and ±4.2 points for registered voters. Smaller party subgroups have larger uncertainty.
Economy and cost of living dominate
About eight in 10 voters identified the economy or cost of living as a top election issue. About two-thirds said the same about health care and the war with Iran. Immigration and crime—issues on which Trump receives comparatively stronger ratings—ranked lower among voters' priorities.
Trump's strongest measured issue was crime, with 45% approval. About two-thirds disapproved of his handling of foreign policy. Among Republican voters, 44% approved of his handling of the cost of living and 54% approved of his economic performance, showing dissatisfaction inside his own party as well as among Democrats and independents.
Democratic advantage, but not a mandate
The survey gives Democrats a modest advantage in preference for control of Congress and in turnout intensity. It does not show broad enthusiasm for the Democratic Party: about four in 10 voters viewed Democrats favorably, while about half viewed the party unfavorably. Approximately six in 10 viewed Republicans unfavorably.
That distinction matters. The poll shows frustration with Republican governance, but it also shows widespread distrust of institutions and both major parties. Fifteen percent remained unsure which party should control each chamber—large enough to matter in close contests.
Why it matters
The survey was completed less than four weeks before Election Day and released as in-person early voting began in North Carolina. It identifies affordability, the economy, health care and the Iran war as the issues most likely to shape voters' choices. For candidates, the data indicate that partisan appeals alone may be insufficient where voters are demanding concrete relief and institutional change.
DINA analysis: dissatisfaction is not the same as an electoral forecast
DINA analysis: The strongest signal is not simply Trump's approval rating or a narrow Democratic advantage. It is the scale of demand for change across partisan lines. That creates an opening for challengers, but it also imposes a burden: voters who distrust both parties may stay home, split their ballots or make late decisions.
A progressive interpretation should not overstate the result. National opinion does not translate evenly across congressional districts, and the survey's ±4.2-point margin for registered voters means small differences may not be statistically decisive. Early-voting patterns, candidate quality, district boundaries and late events can all change the outcome.
Strongest accountability angle
Voters are judging government against material conditions. The accountable response is for candidates and officeholders to disclose specific plans—with costs, timelines and measurable outcomes—for household prices, health care and war policy. Campaigns should not describe a public-opinion snapshot as a guaranteed election result.
Urgent follow-up
- Track whether North Carolina and district-level polling confirms the national pattern.
- Compare early-voting participation by county with previous midterm elections without inferring party choice from turnout alone.
- Request detailed affordability and health-care proposals from congressional candidates.
- Monitor whether candidates address the Iran war's costs, objectives and congressional authorization.
- Review future AP-NORC waves for statistically meaningful movement rather than isolated percentage changes.