Something extraordinary is happening in Alaska. In a state Donald Trump carried by approximately 13 percentage points in 2024, former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola has built a five-digit first-choice lead over two-term Republican Senator Dan Sullivan—after Trump flew to Alaska to campaign for him and Vice President JD Vance also joined the effort to save the seat.
The latest unofficial Alaska Division of Elections data available to DINA show Peltola with 138,240 votes to Sullivan’s 127,828. That is a raw advantage of 10,412 votes. Among the 277,368 reported votes assigned to the four named candidates or write-ins, Peltola stands at 49.84% and Sullivan at 46.09%—a margin of approximately 3.75 percentage points.
Those figures make Peltola the unmistakable first-choice leader. They do not yet make her the winner. She remains 445 votes short of an outright majority of the reported candidate-and-write-in vote, and Alaska’s ranked-choice process can still transfer ballots from eliminated candidates to whichever continuing candidate each voter ranked next. The responsible headline today is that Peltola leads and is strongly positioned; the final word belongs to the lawful count.
The raw electorate numbers
| Candidate | Party / status | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | Democratic | 138,240 | 49.84% |
| Dan S. Sullivan | Republican incumbent | 127,828 | 46.09% |
| Gerald L. Heikes | Republican | 5,885 | 2.12% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | Other | 4,560 | 1.64% |
| Write-ins | Other | 855 | 0.31% |
- 10,412 votes: Peltola’s first-choice advantage over the incumbent.
- 3.75 percentage points: her margin among reported candidate and write-in votes.
- 5,852 votes: Peltola’s lead over both Sullivans combined.
- 445 votes: the additional votes she would need to exceed half of the reported candidate-and-write-in total.
The “two Sullivans” controversy does not erase the arithmetic. Peltola currently has 5,852 more first-choice votes than incumbent Dan S. Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. combined. Nor may any official simply award one candidate another person’s ballots. Under ranked-choice voting, each ballot follows the next preference marked by that voter—or becomes inactive if it contains no usable continuing choice.
Why DINA is not calling the race—yet
Alaska’s system requires more than a conventional election-night comparison. If no candidate holds a first-round majority, the lowest-finishing candidate is eliminated and ballots are transferred according to the voter’s next valid ranking. That process continues until two candidates remain. Overseas ballots may arrive through November 18, the same day the state plans to conduct ranked-choice tabulations for races that require them.
Sullivan’s remaining path depends heavily on transfers from Heikes, the other Republican in the field, and on the composition of the last accepted ballots. Peltola’s advantage is that she begins the transfer stage more than 10,000 votes ahead and has continued to gain in later-counted batches. Independent reviews of preliminary cast-vote data have placed her ahead in simulated final rounds, but simulations are not official tabulations and depend on incomplete files and assumptions.
DINA’s present assessment: Peltola is favored; the race remains uncalled.
Why a Peltola victory would be historic
If the final count confirms the present trajectory, the consequences will reach well beyond one Senate seat:
- Alaska would send its first Alaska Native to the United States Senate. Peltola, a Yup’ik woman, previously became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress when she won the state’s at-large House seat in 2022.
- She would become the first Democrat to win an Alaska Senate election since Mark Begich in 2008.
- Democrats would expand their incoming Senate majority from 55 seats to 56, leaving Republicans with 44. Alaska is the only outstanding Senate race.
- A Trump-carried state would have rejected a Trump-backed incumbent. Trump personally campaigned for Sullivan, and Vance rallied for him as national Republicans tried to fortify a seat that was once treated as safely red.
- The political distance from the 2024 presidential result would be dramatic. Trump won Alaska by roughly 13 points; Peltola’s current first-choice lead is about 3.75 points—a difference of roughly 17 points between those two statewide margins, although different candidates, offices and turnout patterns prevent a direct one-for-one comparison.
How a Republican stronghold became vulnerable
Alaska’s independent streak
Alaska is Republican-leaning, but it is not politically obedient. A large bloc of unaffiliated and independent-minded voters has repeatedly supported candidates who emphasize local interests over national party discipline. Peltola’s “Fish, Family, Freedom” identity and her Alaska-first posture helped her compete outside a conventional Democratic base.
The cost of living
High fuel, food, shipping and household costs dominated the campaign environment. Reporting from the campaign trail found dissatisfaction with both the cost of living and the war in Iran, while Peltola centered affordability, the child tax credit and protection of federal benefits. In a state where distance amplifies almost every price increase, pocketbook pain is not an abstraction.
Federal cuts landed close to home
Alaskans depend on federal capacity for healthcare, weather reporting, public broadcasting, transportation, veterans’ services, rural infrastructure, fisheries science and management of vast federal lands. The Trump administration’s federal-workforce reductions and Republican spending legislation became especially potent campaign issues because cuts to staffing or programs can have outsized effects across remote communities. Sullivan defended the administration’s economic and energy agenda; Peltola argued that loyalty to Washington’s party leadership had come at Alaska’s expense.
Fisheries and subsistence are political survival issues
Peltola’s focus on salmon, bycatch and subsistence fishing connected cultural survival, food security and the state economy. Her credibility as a former fishing boat captain and Alaska Native leader gave her a language of local identity that does not fit neatly inside national partisan categories.
National Republican intervention did not settle the contest
Trump’s personal rally and Vance’s appearance were intended to consolidate Republican voters behind Sullivan. Instead, Peltola emerged from the latest count with a larger first-choice lead. If that lead survives ranked-choice tabulation, Alaska will become another example of the limits of presidential endorsement power in a midterm electorate focused on its own material conditions.
Chief Editor’s Op-Ed: the moral and social referendum
In my judgment, the Alaska count is part of a broader moral and social referendum unfolding across the United States. Voters are not merely rearranging party labels. They are judging whether government has protected ordinary people—or asked them to absorb greater insecurity while political leaders claimed triumph.
When families face high prices, when rural patients fear the loss of healthcare access, when veterans and federal workers see services strained, when public information systems are weakened, and when communities dependent on fisheries believe Washington is ignoring their survival, elections become verdicts on lived experience. Political messaging can rename hardship. It cannot make hardship disappear.
A Peltola victory would therefore carry a message larger than Alaska: no state is a permanent possession of any party, and no endorsement from a president can substitute for accountability to the people. The electorate reserves the sovereign right to reject policies it believes have produced unnecessary suffering, economic anxiety or democratic instability.
But respect for the will of the people requires respect for the count itself. It would be inconsistent to condemn premature or false victory claims from one side while making them for the other. DINA will not do that. We can recognize the magnitude of Peltola’s lead, explain why it matters, and state that she is favored—while still allowing every lawful ballot and every lawful ranking to be counted.
That is not hesitation. That is democracy practiced with discipline.
What happens next
- November 18: deadline for qualifying overseas mail ballots to arrive.
- November 18: Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation for races without a first-round majority.
- November 25: the state’s target date to certify the election.
- DINA update: once the official ranked-choice report is posted—or a reputable decision desk makes a supported call—DINA will replace “Projection Watch” with a confirmed projected-winner or certified-result banner.
Editorial conclusion
Mary Peltola has not yet officially flipped Alaska’s Senate seat. She has, however, moved a once-secure Republican stronghold to the brink of a historic Democratic gain, opened a first-choice lead of 10,412 votes, and placed Trump-backed incumbent Dan Sullivan in the most difficult position of his Senate career. The political shock is real. The historical possibility is real. The democratic verdict is close—but it is not complete.
DINA Projection Watch: Peltola favored. Alaska Senate race not yet called. Full ranked-choice scrutiny continues.
Sources and reporting record
- Alaska Division of Elections: 2026 General Election results, status and schedule.
- Alaska Division of Elections: statewide precinct-level results file.
- Alaska Public Media: latest count and ranked-choice timeline.
- FairVote: preliminary cast-vote-record scenario analysis.
- ABC News election results using Associated Press data: national Senate balance.
- Reuters: Trump’s Alaska rally, affordability and campaign context.